The demand for Italian bubbles, driven by Prosecco and Charmat denominations, is consolidating both at home and abroad, with the “spritz trend” acting as a further driving force. Furthermore, sparkling wine production has extended well beyond the traditional areas of Northern Italy: today there are 70 DOC and 17 DOCG that cover the entire territory, demonstrating the growing diversification of the offer.
Exports growing, but with uncertain prospects
After a complex 2023, Italian wine exports will close 2024 above the threshold of 8 billion euros (4%), thanks above all to the sparkling wine segment. Prosecco dominates: 2 out of 10 bottles exported are of this denomination. The United States and Canada continue to offer good opportunities also for still wines, while sparkling wines are recording excellent performances in markets such as Australia, France, the United Kingdom and North America. However, the international context remains uncertain due to the threat of duties in the USA, the increase in excise duties in Russia and the new taxes planned in the United Kingdom from 2025. In this scenario, Italian companies are trying to diversify their outlets, obtaining promising results in less traditional countries such as Austria, Ireland, Brazil, Romania, Croatia and Thailand.
Domestic market: volumes down, sparkling wines doing well
Domestic demand, affected by the high cost of living and changes in consumer habits, will close 2024 with a drop in volumes (-1.5% in the first nine months). Still and sparkling wines are suffering the most, especially in e-commerce, while sparkling wines continue to grow in all channels, thanks to the contribution of cheaper products at the expense of PDO ones. In the modern channel (large-scale retail trade), Circana data show an overall defensive picture: -1.7% volumes in the first 11 months, but stable or slightly growing values (1.8%) thanks to the price effect. Consumers, under pressure, often prefer the most convenient formats and channels, such as discount stores.
Focus on prices and new channels
The slight increase in overall market values is due to price increases, rather than a real increase in consumption. This trend pushes consumers towards entry-level products, partly penalizing the more prestigious denominations. However, sparkling wines remain the driving force of the category, with a 3.5% market value, benefiting from the growth in consumption during aperitifs and socializing, even outside the home.
Dop economy: slight decline for wine, but Prosecco and Igp hold up
The Dop economy, well photographed by the Ismea-Qualivita report, shows a solid system but slightly slowing down as far as Dop wines are concerned, while Igp wines are growing in value and volume. Dop and Igp wine exports remain close to 7 billion, confirming Italy among the world leaders. However, the situation is two-speed: on the one hand, bottled volumes and the value of Dop wines are decreasing, on the other, Igp wines are increasing and routes to new markets are supporting a significant part of the growth.
Outlook 2025: Between Optimism and Caution
Despite geopolitical tensions, inflation, climate change and changes in consumer preferences, some experts, such as the president of the European Association of Wine Economists, see positive glimmers of hope as early as 2025, linked to a possible global economic stabilization. Furthermore, innovation, the ability to adapt to new trends (no/low alcohol, cocktails, emerging markets) and the resilience of the sparkling wine sector remain fundamental assets to maintain leadership and face future challenges.
Ultimately, 2024 closes with a defended domestic market and exports supported above all by bubbles, with uncertain prospects but not without opportunities. Italy confirms its leading role on the world wine stage, thanks to the appeal of sparkling wines and the ability to diversify markets and typologies, remaining vigilant in the face of upcoming challenges.
